I exited my position against the S&P 500 this morning. The 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month forecasts are all marginally positive.

I’m still invested against the S&P at a leverage factor of -2. The 1-day, 1-week forecasts are negative. The 1-month forecast is negative, but below its threshold for additional leverage. The 1-year forecast is still negative, but it’s been very much a weakening forecast in recent weeks.

I’m sticking with a position against the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of -2 today. The 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year forecasts are all negative. I’m not increasing the leverage factor because the 1-month is just above its threshold for action, and I don’t want to trigger a transaction cost just to potentially reverse… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-26

I reduced my leverage against the S&P 500 from a factor of -3 to -2 today. The 1-day, 1-week, and 1-year forecasts are all negative, but the 1-month forecast while negative was below my threshold for action based on said forecast.

I’m still in a position against the S&P 500 at a leverage factor of -3 since the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year forecasts are all negative.

I’m still in a position against the index with leverage of -3, as the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year forecasts are all negative.

I have changed my leverage against the S&P 500 from a factor of -1 to -3, because the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts from my modeling are all negative. If market conditions remain largely unchanged over the weekend, I’ll probably be keeping this position open on Monday based on forecasts for Monday.

Today, I opened a position against the index at a leverage factor of -1, as the 1-day and 1-week ranged forecasts are negative. The 1-month forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year forecast is still negative.

Initial post from before the Fed’s rate cut: I closed my S&P 500 position today. The 1-day forecast is marginally positive. The 1-week forecast and 1-month forecasts are marginally negative. The 1-year forecast is still negative. Update from after Fed’s rate cut: Today’s forecast is little changed, so I’m not taking a position before the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-18

I eliminated the leverage but am holding a position with the S&P 500. The 1-day ranged forecast is positive, while the 1-week and 1-month ranged forecasts are marginally positive. The 1-year ranged forecast is still negative. Odds are good that I will be active in the market tomorrow, as the Fed’s actions are likely to… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-17