Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts with a 50% regression riskDaily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative Given the different daily and weekly directions, I’m sitting in cash. If I was solely looking at baseline data (recession risk of 3%), the Daily and Monthly forecasts would be deemed as having a negative trend, and… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-16

Daily Trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally negative When I force the data to a 50% recession probability the daily trend becomes positive, and the quarterly trend becomes negative. I exited my position against the index today without taking a new position, unless you count cash as a position.… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally negativeWith an increased assumption of 50% likelihood of in recession, the quarterly expectation shifts to negative, too. Thus, I’m invested against the index. I’m avoiding ETF’s with leverage factors greater than 1, given current lack of political predictability. Invest at your own… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-14

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive. Forcing the data to reflect a 50% recession risk, flips the quarterly trend to negative, too. Thus, I’m still short the market. I’m actively avoiding leveraged approaches due to the politically unpredictable environment. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive

My forecast has me investing against the index. I don’t have time to go into details. Modeling suggests exiting tomorrow, but we’ll see what the data brings.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts when 50% recession expectation:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive I’ve entered a position against the market. I’m not leveraged since (a) Monthly trends don’t support the shorter ranged forecast trends and (b) I’ve… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-07

Daily trends based on ranged forecasts on standard dataDaily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Daily trends based on ranged forecasts with increased recession risk variable:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m waiting for a clearer forecast signal before investing for or against the index in the short term. Invest at your… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-06

Daily Trend Expectations based on standard data’s Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Daily Trend Expectations based on recession in data for ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m not invested in the market give daily and weekly forecasts not suggesting the same trends. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts (regular data):Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positiveDaily trends based on ranged forecasts (increased likelihood of recession):Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Both forecast variants have led to me not taking a position with or against the index today, not a clear enough short-range forecast. Invest at your… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-02