For those who don’t live and die by the BLS calendar, today was the monthly Friday for the jobs report. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, which is admittedly historically low, but its direction is a very strong indicator of when a recession is underway (frequently before it has been declared). I’m definitely not saying that we’re there yet, but recent data suggests that the unemployment rate bottomed out at roughly 3.5% earlier this year. While a steady trickle of unemployment up .1-.2% at a time may seem like no big deal. In aggregate, as the level moves higher away from 3.5%, the more likely we are to be entering recession. I think most of you believe this intuitively, but yes, equity returns and recessions are very correlated, hence the topic showing up on this site. Here’s a very impressive data plot regarding the relationship (for which I can take no credit).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Have a great weekend!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For those who don’t live and die by the BLS calendar, today was the monthly Friday for the jobs report. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, which is admittedly historically low, but its direction is a very strong indicator of when a recession is underway (frequently before it has been declared). I’m definitely not saying that… Continue reading Recession finally coming?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":103,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101\/revisions\/103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}