{"id":366,"date":"2024-08-12T20:34:55","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T19:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/?p=366"},"modified":"2024-08-12T20:34:55","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T19:34:55","slug":"unemployment-as-a-model-variable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/12\/unemployment-as-a-model-variable\/","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment as a model variable"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (unemployment increasing more than .5 percent based on a moving average) admittedly caused quite a stir in recent weeks. <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/SAHMREALTIME\">Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)<\/a>, which leads me to saying a bit about my own modeling efforts with unemployment and panic about recession or not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My own modeling efforts do use unemployment as an effort to understand if we&#8217;re in a recession that should be influencing model expectations. However, I use a grayscale s-curve concept rather than a strict binary variable that flips at .5% or a similar change in the unemployment rate. Thus, my modeling thinks that the likelihood that we&#8217;re in or near the cusp or a recession is meaningfully higher than before the most recent BLS jobs report, but it is very unlikely to flip completely on or off like a light switch from one job report to the next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (unemployment increasing more than .5 percent based on a moving average) admittedly caused quite a stir in recent weeks. Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org), which leads me to saying a bit about my own modeling efforts with unemployment and panic about recession&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/12\/unemployment-as-a-model-variable\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Unemployment as a model variable<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=366"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":367,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/366\/revisions\/367"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}