{"id":522,"date":"2025-03-14T19:47:44","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T19:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/?p=522"},"modified":"2025-03-14T19:47:45","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T19:47:45","slug":"sp-500-forecast-2025-03-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/14\/sp-500-forecast-2025-03-14\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-14"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

My daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts are all positive. My annual forecast is marginally negative. Positive\/negative implies that the forecast is significant enough in magnitude to suggest a likely daily trend. Under usual circumstances, I’d be invested in the index at a leverage factor of 3. However, these aren’t usual circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Political uncertainty is fostering high volatility both up and down. When leveraged, this can result in losing money in a market trending flat. Leverage works best when there is a reasonably steady up or downwards trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Upwards forecast should be taken with a grain of salt. My recession indicator is based on the Sahm rule, so it’s not weighing heavily on forecasts currently, but the probability of both high future inflation and a recession are up due to tariffs, chaotic government changes, etc.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    For these reasons, I’m long the index, but without leverage. As always, invest at your own risk, especially now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    My daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts are all positive. My annual forecast is marginally negative. Positive\/negative implies that the forecast is significant enough in magnitude to suggest a likely daily trend. Under usual circumstances, I’d be invested in the index at a leverage factor of 3. However, these aren’t usual circumstances. For these reasons,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-14<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=522"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":523,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522\/revisions\/523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}