Ranged-forecasts suggestion of daily trend:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Positive
Annually: Marginally positive<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This forecast holds true for both my unemployment based recession variable and a forced value on the recession probability indicator of .4 (on a 0 to 1) scale.
Thus, I’m short the market. I’m intentionally using a leverage factor of just -1 since the Trump administration announcement and resulting market reactions are quite volatile and not necessarily consistent with my market data driven model predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Invest at your own risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ranged-forecasts suggestion of daily trend:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive This forecast holds true for both my unemployment based recession variable and a forced value on the recession probability indicator of .4 (on a 0 to 1) scale. Thus, I’m short the market. I’m intentionally using a leverage factor of just -1 since the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-11<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=567"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":568,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567\/revisions\/568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}