Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts with a 50% regression risk
Daily: Positive
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Marginally positive
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally negative<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Given the different daily and weekly directions, I’m sitting in cash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If I was solely looking at baseline data (recession risk of 3%), the Daily and Monthly forecasts would be deemed as having a negative trend, and I’d have invested against the index. I suspect the unemployment data that drives my recession risk variable should be higher, so I’m insisting on both the 50% and the 3% assumptions agreeing with each other to invest for the time being. Note, I’m not trying to play politics, but grinding trade gears seems very likely to hurt the economy in at least the short term, even Trump has admitted as much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Invest at your own risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts with a 50% regression riskDaily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative Given the different daily and weekly directions, I’m sitting in cash. If I was solely looking at baseline data (recession risk of 3%), the Daily and Monthly forecasts would be deemed as having a negative trend, and… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-16<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=608"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":609,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/608\/revisions\/609"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}