Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Positive
Weekly: Positive
Monthly: Marginally positive
Quarterly: Marginally negative
Annually: Marginally positive
Assuming a higher 50% recession probability results in the daily forecast only being marginally positive and the weekly forecast being negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, I exited my position against the index given the short-term forecasts positivity, but I didn’t open a position trying to capture index gains due to the negativity of the recession heavy forecast version. Invest at your own risk. My last position gained one percent over its entirety, but also lost almost two percent in a single day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: Marginally negativeAnnually: Marginally positiveAssuming a higher 50% recession probability results in the daily forecast only being marginally positive and the weekly forecast being negative. Thus, I exited my position against the index given the short-term forecasts positivity, but I didn’t open a position trying… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-28<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":626,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625\/revisions\/626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}