Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Positive
Weekly: Positive
Monthly: Marginally positive
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally positive<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This forecast would usually lead me to hold my investment in an S&P index fund. However, I’m selling out based on alternate results from assuming a recession risk of 50%. I’m skeptical that the unemployment rate via the Sahm rule is pricing in recession risk as quickly as the market, given the general awareness of the business and consumer uncertainty fomented by unpredictable tariff news. I won’t be surprised to see the Sahm Rule’s value rise on Friday and rise further in months ahead. It seems prudent to look at what a higher recession risk value suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts with higher recession risk:
Daily: Positive
Weekly: Marginally positive
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally positive<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As these additional forecasts don’t also support staying in the market, I’ve exited my index fund position. Invest at your own risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive This forecast would usually lead me to hold my investment in an S&P index fund. However, I’m selling out based on alternate results from assuming a recession risk of 50%. I’m skeptical that the unemployment rate via the Sahm rule is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-04<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=633"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":636,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633\/revisions\/636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bullbearduck.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}