Daily: Marginally negative (~5% of investment thresholdWeekly: Negative (~4x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (~2x investment threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~60% investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I evaluated this too late today. If I had installed the new model before Friday, I would have saved myself a couple days of pain. Invest at your own risk. I anticipate exiting… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-09-21

I’m doing something different today from just updating ranged forecasts. Over the weekend, I explored shifting from strictly return oriented forecasts to return over risk ratios. The daily return model is fundamentally unchanged. I’m just now also modeling for downside risk based on actual return when the forecast and actual results were in opposite directions.… Continue reading New Daily Forecast Model Version

Daily: Negative (~7x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (~5x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~30% threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index today. I might exit Monday if data holds as is. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (~7x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (~5.5x threshold)Monthly: Negative (~2.5x threshold)Marginally: Marginally negative (~35% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested short-term against the index. I’m not expecting exiting tomorrow either given current data and short-term forecast strengths. Invest at your own risk. Most people should just buy-and-hold rather than playing with the fire of… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-09-15

Daily: Negative (>4x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~50% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index short term. Thus far, I’m up 1.5%. My model suggests that negative conditions are strengthening regarding daily and weekly forecasts while the monthly forecast is also steadily negative. Invest at your… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-09-10

Daily: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x hreshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (60% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index. If data stays steady, I anticipate still holding my position through tomorrow. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (Just over investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~60% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index in the short-term. If data holds, I’m likely to exist tomorrow. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~70% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index. I might exit Tuesday if the daily forecast weakens on Tuesday as I’m currently anticipating. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (~3x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (<50% threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I just entered a position against the S&P 500. I feel pretty good about it given the short-term forecasts. However, these forecasts admittedly have an uncomfortable variance. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: No changeWeekly: Negative (>3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~40% investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m on the sidelines. The daily forecast wasn’t strong enough to push me in, though current data suggests that I may take a position against the index tomorrow. Invest at your own risk!