Daily: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x hreshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (60% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index. If data stays steady, I anticipate still holding my position through tomorrow. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (Just over investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~60% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index in the short-term. If data holds, I’m likely to exist tomorrow. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~70% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still invested against the index. I might exit Tuesday if the daily forecast weakens on Tuesday as I’m currently anticipating. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (~3x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (<50% threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I just entered a position against the S&P 500. I feel pretty good about it given the short-term forecasts. However, these forecasts admittedly have an uncomfortable variance. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: No changeWeekly: Negative (>3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~40% investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m on the sidelines. The daily forecast wasn’t strong enough to push me in, though current data suggests that I may take a position against the index tomorrow. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Marginally negative (~70% of investment thresholdWeekly: Negative (Almost 4x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~80% of investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still on the sidelines. The significant losses and rising rates this morning weakened the daily forecast for today. I’m waiting for a stronger daily forecast to go along with the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-09-01

Daily: Marginally positiveWeekly: Negative (>3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (> 2x threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (Just under threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’ve been watching from the sidelines rather than investing short term with or against the index. Tomorrow, I’m likely to take a position against the index if tomorrow’s data is little changed from today. Invest at your… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-31

Daily: Marginally negativeWeekly: Negative (>3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (~50% over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (~50% over investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I exited my position against the market for a return of ~+.9%, due to the weakness of the daily forecast and the fact that tomorrow’s forecast is marginally positive if current data holds steady. Invest at… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-25

Daily: Negative (slightly over investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2x threshold)Monthly: Negative (~30% over threshold)Quarterly: Negative (~30% over threshold)Annually: Marginally negative (~0) I’m still invested short-term against the index as the forecasts nicely point in the same direction, particularly the daily and weekly forecasts. Forecasts for tomorrow based on today’s data suggest a sustained stance. Invest at… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-20

As a general rule, I try not to write much about administration policy, as this site is devoted to forecasting the direction of the stock market via the S&P 500. However, treasury rates are very relevant to my modeling efforts. This whole plan of buying back long-term treasuries strikes me as gimicky, as they’re then… Continue reading Thoughts on Treasury Buyback Treasury Policy