As a general rule, I try not to write much about administration policy, as this site is devoted to forecasting the direction of the stock market via the S&P 500. However, treasury rates are very relevant to my modeling efforts. This whole plan of buying back long-term treasuries strikes me as gimicky, as they’re then… Continue reading Thoughts on Treasury Buyback Treasury Policy

Daily: Marginally negativeWeekly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (~50% over threshold)Quarterly: Negative (~45% over threshold)Annually: Marginally negative. If I was out of the market, today’s daily forecast weakness would keep me out. However, I’m already invested against the index, and tomorrow’s forecast suggest restrengthening of negative forecasts. I’m opting to avoid the transaction costs of… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-19

Daily: Negative (Basically, at investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2x threshold)Monthly: Negative (~40% over threshold)Quarterly: Negative (~35% over threshold)Annually: Marginally negative The strength of the negative forecasts has weakened considerably since yesterday. I’m intending to rerun the models later this afternoon before deciding on whether to make a trading move today. Tomorrow’s forecasts based on today’s data… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-18

Daily: Negative (Mildly over threshold)Weekly: Negative (>3x over threshold)Monthly: Negative (~80% over threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x over threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still holding a position against the index. As the daily forecast has weakened, and tomorrow’s forecast may lead me to exit, I toyed with the idea of getting out ahead of strategy. However, the longer-term… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-17

Daily: Negative (almost 3x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still holding in my position against the index. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (~80% beyond investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I entered a short-term position against the index today. Invest at your own risk! Barring a change of data, tomorrow’s forecasts appear likely to strengthen, rather than encouraging me to exit quickly.

Daily: Marginally negative (Just under investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (~3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (~80% over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (~2/3 over investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m out of the market regarding short-term investing as the daily forecast isn’t quite as complimentary to the rest as I would ideally like to see before investing. If data stays relatively… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-10

Daily: Positive (Slightly over investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2x over investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (~50% over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m not actively invested short-term with or against the index since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t more complimentary. Invest at your own risk! Current forecasts suggest that I may make my… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2026-08-07

Daily: Marginally positiveWeekly: Negative (>3x investment threshold)Monthly: Negative (~50% over threshold)Quarterly: Marginally negative (~80% of threshold)Annually: Marginally negative Sorry for being lax on updates lately. There haven’t been a lot of strong forecasts, and I opted to enjoy vacation. I’m not short-term invested currently. Invest at your own risk!

Daily: Marginally negativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Negative It would just take a slightly more negative forecast for me to open a position against the index. Invest at your own risk!