Month: October 2023

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive with the monthly forecast being on the low end of neutral. Holding long the S&P500 without leverage.Tomorrow: Daily and weekly forecasts unchanged, but the monthly forecast is mildly negative. In which case, I would hold long, but definitely not entertain a leveraged position.Current position is up 1.57% since… Continue reading Short-term Forecast

I created a breakdown of what is factoring into the current particularly bearish forecast for the annual model. I categorize the many model variables as falling into one of six categories: dividend yield, stock v bond, credit premiums, inflation, term (aka time) premiums, and price trends. Pretty much all the categories are weighing the model… Continue reading Why so down?

Thanks to a conversation with a friend over the weekend. I’ve generated a monthly forecast that influences the usage of leverage in my trading going forward. For example, if the daily and weekly forecast are negative and the annual forecast is also negative, but the monthly forecast is actually positive; arguably, I shouldn’t be investing… Continue reading Investing strategy modification

Today: Daily and weekly models are positive. New monthly model is neutral. Annual model is bearish. Thus, long S&P 500 without leverage. Tomorrow: Daily and weekly modelas are positive. Monthly model is neutral. Annual model is bearish. Not anticipating trading changes tomorrow.Open position performance +.6%As always invest at your own risk.

Today: Positive forecasts with the weekly forecast considerably stronger than the daily forecast. Monday: More positive forecast than today.I opened a position to go long S&P 500, but without leverage, as I’m still forecasting a bearish result for 12 months out. Technically, I should have opened this position yesterday and lost a modest amount of… Continue reading Short-term forecast 2023-10-27

While I do believe it’s possible to beat the market long-term, most people who try fail. To use the language of my wife’s family, most of us aren’t “special bunnies” when it comes to unearthing great, new trading schemes. If you’re going to beat the market consistently (aka Warren Buffet and whomever else you want… Continue reading Active Trading Is Dangerous

Today: Positive forecasts, but I wasn’t able to run the model and trade during market hours. If I had, I would have gone long the S&P 500 without leverage, because my annual model predicts a bearish long-term forecast. Tomorrow: Positive forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

Sorry for the gap in posts. Technical difficulties with the website, but it’s back up now. Today: Neutral forecast. Daily forecast is weakly negative. Weekly forecast is weakly positive. I closed out my short position up 1.46% since opening it two trading days ago.Tomorrow: Currently a neutral forecast, but it’s on the cusp of being… Continue reading Short-Term Forecast 2023-10-25

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are weak enough to go back to short. The annual forecast is still bearish enough for me to include leverage. Tomorrow: Anticipating similar forecasts, which would mean holding on to short positions opened today. Sorry that I didn’t get this out before the end of the trading day. I do… Continue reading Short-term forecast 2023-10-23

Today: While both the daily and weekly forecasts are negative, the weekly forecast is no longer strong enough for me to stay short. Taking my ball and going home (up 9.43% over 3 days). Monday: Both the daily and weekly forecasts are currently negative enough for me to entertain investing. I may be back in… Continue reading Short-term forecast 2023-10-20