Month: November 2023

The daily, weekly, monthly, and annual forecasts are all negative today; but tomorrow, the monthly forecast is expected to be positive. I entered a position against the market, but no gearing since the monthly forecast doesn’t suggest it’s a great time for a very bearish play. Invest at your own risk. I make no guarantees.

The forecasts are all negative, but the monthly forecast has been steadily improving (from roughly -4% to 0% tomorrow in roughly a week). I’m closing my position up +.40% from when I opened it. As always, invest at your own risk. I make no guarantees.

The daily, weekly, monthly, and annual forecast for the S&P 500 are all negative. The monthly forecast is improving such that I might stop going against the S&P 500 with leverage soon, but not yet. My current position is at +.50% since being opened. As always, invest at your own risk. I make no guarantees.

For today and tomorrow, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual forecasts are all suggesting negative S&P500 growth. Thus, I continue to be short with leverage. The current position’s return up to the current moment is +.20%. As always invest at your own risk. I make no guarantees.

Today: The forecasts are all negative today.Monday: The forecasts are again all negative. With concern about the holiday seasonal trend over and the daily and weekly forecasts intensifying, I’m shifting from going against the S&P 500 to going against it by a factor of 3. The position I’m closing today gained +.07% since it was… Continue reading Forecast 2023-11-24

Today: All forecasts are negative. Friday: All forecasts are negative with the short-term forecast being increasingly negative. I opened a short S&P 500 position, but I’m not trying to gear up to a factor of two or three, since I’m a bit wary of betting against historical Thanksgiving weekend market trends.

Today: Neutral daily and weekly forecasts, negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Negative forecasts across the board. Positioning: In cash. If tomorrow’s forecast holds, I’ll short, but not with leverage. I trust the model less with the days around Thanksgiving. I don’t have variables regarding Thanksgiving, and the raw data suggests a strongly positive seasonal… Continue reading Forecast 2023-11-21

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are neutral. Monthly and annual forecasts are negative. Tomorrow: All forecasts are negative. I’m currently in cash. Regarding tomorrow, I don’t have a special indicator for Thanksgiving week in my modeling. There is no denying that history suggests a very typical holiday boost for the tail end of this week.… Continue reading Forecast 2023-11-20

Today: Neutral daily forecast, positive weekly forecast, negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Neutral daily and weekly forecasts, negative monthly and annual forecasts. Sitting in cash. (Per every day, invest at your own risk. I guarantee nothing.)

Today: Neutral daily forecast. Positive weekly forecast. Negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Neutral daily and weekly forecasts. Negative monthly and annual forecasts. My alignment is cash. Invest at your own risk.