The 1-day and 1-week forecasts are mildly positive. The 1-mo and 1-yr forecasts are negative. The trading rules that I’m following don’t support taking a position today. If they had, I would have had to think long and hard about it, as it seems likely that the Fed’s press conference will move the market in ways that I’m skeptical that my modeling is great at predicting. I haven’t tried to research that. Frankly, the sample size would be small, as press conferences after the FOMC meetings are still a fairly new event. I’m refraining from stating what my forecast says about tomorrow if data holds, because volatility risk this afternoon seems high. Invest at your own risk.
