Month: May 2024

1-Day forecast is negative, slightly over the magnitude threshold 1-Wk forecast is mildly negative. Thus, technically, following the model would be opening a position against the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of (-1). However, inflation data comes out tomorrow. I’m not interested on taking a position based on only a weak signal, the day… Continue reading S&P Forecast 2024-05-14

1-day forecast is barely positive. 1-wk forecast is mildly positive. 1-mo forecast is mildly negative. 1-yr forecast is negative. Reaction: Closed position, locking in gain of +.70%. Tomorrow: If market conditions hold, I may place a position against the index. Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk. The model is fitted to history. No model will… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-05-13

The 1-day and 1-week forecasts are positive. The 1-mo forecast today is mildly positive, but the 1-mo forecast for tomorrow is mildly negative. Technically, my strategy suggests that I should be leveraged the S&P 500 today (+2) and gear down to an ordinary index fund tomorrow. I’m just holding in the ordinary index fund to… Continue reading S&P Forecast 2024-05-09

1-day and 1-week forecasts are positive. The 1-mo forecast is almost spot on zero. The monthly forecast for tomorrow assuming current conditions persist is mildly negative. Thus, I’m opening a basic long position in an S&P 500 index funds, rather than trying to take on a leverage factor of 2 and likely recalibrating tomorrow. Invest… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-05-08

1-day forecast is mildly positive. The 1-wk forecast is positive. The 1-mo forecast is mildly negative. The 1-yr forecast is negative. I’m not taking a position based on this forecast, but I anticipate doing so tomorrow, depending on what happens between now and then. Invest at your own risk.

The 1-day forecast is mildly neutral, while the 1-week forecast is just barely positive. The 1-mo forecast is still negative, but it’s drifting towards what I’d describe as mildly negative if recent history continues. I don’t currently have an S&P 500 model based position, and it appears unlikely that that will change tomorrow, unless conditions… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-05-06

The 1-day and 1-wk forecasts are mildly negative while the 1-mo and 1-yr forecasts would be actionably negative, with complimentary shorter term forecasts. I’m waiting for a clearer forecast before opening any new positions. Invest at your own risk.

The 1-day and 1-week forecasts are mildly positive. The 1-mo and 1-yr forecasts are negative. The trading rules that I’m following don’t support taking a position today. If they had, I would have had to think long and hard about it, as it seems likely that the Fed’s press conference will move the market in… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-05-01, Before FOMC press conference