Month: August 2024

I am in a position against the S&P 500 using a leverage factor of -3. The 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-yr ranged forecasts are all negative.

I’m not in a position with or against the S&P 500 currently. The 1-day and 1-wk ranged forecasts are both negative, but barely over my thresholds for typically taking a position. With Nvidia releasing earnings this evening, I’d prefer to have a clearer signal. The 1-month and 1-yr ranged forecasts are both negative, and I’m… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-08-28

Since the 1-day forecast is negative while the 1-week forecast is positive, I’m not in a position long or short the S&P 500. The 1-mo and 1-yr forecasts are negative. (Thus, a negative 1-week forecast would cause me to entertain a -3 leverage factor, but it’s not.)

I’m positioned in cash rather than for or against the S&P 500,as the 1-day forecast is marginally negative while the 1-week forecast is positive. The 1-month and 1-year forecasts are both negative. (Longer forecasts influence my use of leverage, not whether I’m long, out, or short.)

I exited my S&P 500 position today. The 1-day forecast is positive, but just over my threshold, with the expectation of dipping below it tomorrow. The 1-week forecast is positive. The 1-month and 1-year forecasts are negative.

I’m still holding a position long the index with a leverage factor or 1. If markets are uneventful, I may exit the position tomorrow. The 1-day forecast and the 1-week forecast are positive. The 1-month and the 1-year forecast are negative.

I continue to hold a long position in the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of 2. However, I may reposition that to a leverage factor of 1 tomorrow due to a weakening 1-mo forecast. The 1-day forecast is positive. The 1-week forecast is positive. The 1-month forecast is marginally positive. The 1-yr forecast is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-08-15

My investment shifted yesterday to with the S&P 500 using a leverage factor of 2. The 1-day model forecast is positive. The 1-week model forecast is positive. The 1-month model forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year model forecast is still very negative.

The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (unemployment increasing more than .5 percent based on a moving average) admittedly caused quite a stir in recent weeks. Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org), which leads me to saying a bit about my own modeling efforts with unemployment and panic about recession… Continue reading Unemployment as a model variable

The model strategy calls for investing with the S&P 500 at a leverage factor of 2. I’m actually doing a factor of 1 for a couple reasons: (a) the daily and monthly forecasts aren’t very strong and (b) I’m not confident in my availability to trade tomorrow if I it proves time to unwind this… Continue reading Forecast 2024-08-12