I’m sticking with a position against the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of -2 today. The 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year forecasts are all negative. I’m not increasing the leverage factor because the 1-month is just above its threshold for action, and I don’t want to trigger a transaction cost just to potentially reverse it tomorrow. Plus, data release days such as the personal consumption expenditure data tomorrow can be volatile and less predictable days as to what way the market will move.
