Month: February 2025

I’ve exited my position against the market today. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative/positive forecasts connote a strong enough forecast to suggest a daily trend, not bear markets, corrections, etc. Invest at your own risk.

I’m positioned against the index at a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative connotes a forecast strong enough to suggest a daily trend in direction, not a bear market, nor even a correction. Invest at your own risk.

I’m still short the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative forecasts do not mean a bear market, nor a correction. Rather, it means that the forecast is under a threshold where daily results clearly trended down. Invest at your own risk.

I’m still invested against the index with a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecast:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative forecasts do not mean a bear market, nor even a correction. Rather, it just means that the forecast is negative enough that back-tested forecasts suggest a clear daily trend. Invest at your own risk.

I’m still invested against the index at a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Note: Negative forecasts are not a prediction of a bear market or a correction, just enough of a negative forecast that actual daily results in backtesting have historically trended down. Invest at your own risk.

I’m still short the index at a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecast:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally negative Note: Negative forecasts do not mean that I’m forecasting a bear market nor even a correction. Invest at your own risk.

I opened a position against the index with leverage of -2. Underlying forecast:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally negative Note: Negative forecasts do not mean I’m predicting a bear market or even a correction. Invest at your own risk.

Closed position against the S&P 500 index. Underlying forecast:Daily: Marginally positiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative Note: Negative forecasts do not correspond to bear markets or corrections regarding severity. Invest at your own risk.

I entered a position against the index at a leverage factor of -3. Underlying forecast:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative. Note: These forecasts are just negative enough for me to take short-term trading action. I’m not predicting a bear market or even a correction. Invest at your own risk.

I exited my position against the index at a leverage factor of -3. Underlying forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative Note: None of these forecasts are monstrous, just significant enough to meet my trading thresholds. I’m not trying to suggest that there is a bear market, or even a correction coming with my longer… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-02-13