Here are the ranged forecasts:
Daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts with normal data are positive. The annual forecast is now marginally positive.
If I put my finger down on a recession variable marked that has a range of 0 (not recession) v. 1 (recession), a value of .5 or 1 on that regression variable changes the story significantly. I think currently the market might justifiably conclude recession ahead of my model, given all the political news on tariffs, govt shutdown, etc. tempers my forecasts to the point of not taking a position in the market.
Thus, I’m treading lightly on my actual market moves. I’m investing in the index with a leverage factor of 1, rather than 3.
Invest at your own risk, especially in these hard to predict times.