My daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly ranged forecasts are all positive in regards to suggesting a daily trend for the S&P 500. The annually ranged forecast is positive, but not enough to suggest it supports a daily trend. Based on the models, I’m invested long the index, but without leverage. (a) There is too much political volatility that my model can’t capture well to be comfortable on that front. (b) I suspect that the risk of recession in reality is much higher than my analytic for capturing this. Tariffs and government confusion are clearly downward economic pressures, whether or not they have shown up in the unemployment data that I draw upon.
Invest at your own risk.