Month: April 2025

Daily trend expectations from ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m waiting for a clearer signal before I reinvest. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Return Trends based on Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I exited my position against the index today to instead sit in cash. While the standard forecasts are still pessimistic, the magnitudes have shrunk, and forcing the recession variable based on unemployment from <.05 to .5 (think 50% chance of in recession)… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-28

Anticipated daily trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m in a position against the index but without any additional leverage, given the political uncertainty of the moment. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m still short the index, but without the leverage that my strategy calls for. Political volatility is just too high to entertain leverage. Invest at your own risk. I’m not always right, as evidenced by today.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positiveNote: These are also the expectations if I force the recession probability variable to 50% (overriding my unemployment based variable). Thus, I’m still in a position against the index. I’m not using leverage due to the political volatility, arguably being out of scoped… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-22

Ranged forecast’s suggestion of daily trends:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I entered a position against the market. As I’ve said on multiple posts in the past month, I’m steering clear of greater leverage due to the volatility of the political climate. FWIW, Personal and work matters kept me from providing forecasts the last… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-17

Ranged-forecast suggestions of daily return trendsDaily: Negative (w/ unemployment data as recession indicator; Positive (w/ recession probability forced to 50%)Weekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I exited my position against the market today and took no new position. Invest at your own risk.

Ranged-forecasts suggestion of daily trend:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive This forecast holds true for both my unemployment based recession variable and a forced value on the recession probability indicator of .4 (on a 0 to 1) scale. Thus, I’m short the market. I’m intentionally using a leverage factor of just -1 since the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-11

Ranged-forecasts (true for both current data and recession variable forced to .4)Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positivePositive or negative is a statement of a large enough magnitude trend to suggest a daily trend direction. I’m holding in a position against the S&P at a leverage factor of just -1 that I entered after the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-10

Ranged Forecasts:The daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts are positive, while the annual forecast is marginally positive. However, overriding the recession variable to .5 (on a scale of 0 to 1), makes the daily forecast negative. Positive or negative is an indicator of expected daily trend based on the magnitude of the forecast. Under normal… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-08