Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Positive
Annually: Marginally positive
Note: These are also the expectations if I force the recession probability variable to 50% (overriding my unemployment based variable).
Thus, I’m still in a position against the index. I’m not using leverage due to the political volatility, arguably being out of scoped of a largely financial data model. Invest at your own risk.