Month: May 2025

Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positiveAssuming an increased recession risk of 50% doesn’t alter the expected trends. Thus, I’m purchasing an S&P 500 index fund. The forecast isn’t strong enough to justify a leveraged bet according to my strategy. Even if it was, I wouldn’t do it since… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-30

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: Marginally negativeAnnually: Marginally positiveAssuming a higher 50% recession probability results in the daily forecast only being marginally positive and the weekly forecast being negative. Thus, I exited my position against the index given the short-term forecasts positivity, but I didn’t open a position trying… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-28

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negativeAssuming a higher recession probability of .50 would leave the expected trends the same except for the monthly expectation worsening to negative. Thus, I’m still invested against the index. I’m avoiding excessive leverage due to the political instability surrounding tarrifs (e.g. today’s… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-27

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negativeAltering data to increase recession risk to 50% reinforces these forecasts. I’m still invested against the index. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negativeIf you force the recession risk variable up to 50% rather than standard Sahm rule driven approach, the negative forecasts are more severe. I’m still invested against the index. I’m eschewing leveraging by a factor of 2 or 3 despite my typical strategy… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-22

Daily trends based on ranged forecastsDaily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative If I assume greater recession risks, the forecasts give the same results. I’m still invested against the index. I caution against excessive leverage in the current political climate. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative If I force the data to reflect a 50% recession probability, those ranged forecasts reinforce the above data. Thus, I’m still investing against the index. I caution against excessive leverage given that political announcements about tariffs are hard to predict from one day… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-20

Daily trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative If I alter the data to 50% recession probability, I get similar results, just a modest change in the monthly forecast to marginally negative. Thus, I’m opening a position against the index. I’m not seeking to increase leverage to a factor of 2… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-19

Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts with a 50% regression riskDaily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative Given the different daily and weekly directions, I’m sitting in cash. If I was solely looking at baseline data (recession risk of 3%), the Daily and Monthly forecasts would be deemed as having a negative trend, and… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-16

Daily Trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally negative When I force the data to a 50% recession probability the daily trend becomes positive, and the quarterly trend becomes negative. I exited my position against the index today without taking a new position, unless you count cash as a position.… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast