Daily Trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Marginally positive
Annually: Marginally negative
When I force the data to a 50% recession probability the daily trend becomes positive, and the quarterly trend becomes negative.
I exited my position against the index today without taking a new position, unless you count cash as a position. Currently, I’m only investing when the base data and recessionary forecast agree with each other. Invest at your own risk.