Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally negative
If you force the recession risk variable up to 50% rather than standard Sahm rule driven approach, the negative forecasts are more severe.
I’m still invested against the index. I’m eschewing leveraging by a factor of 2 or 3 despite my typical strategy calling for it when all the ranged forecasts align because of recent correlations between government decrees and markets. My models doesn’t forecast government decrees. Invest at your own risk.