Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Marginally negative
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally negative
Assuming a higher recession probability of .50 would leave the expected trends the same except for the monthly expectation worsening to negative.
Thus, I’m still invested against the index. I’m avoiding excessive leverage due to the political instability surrounding tarrifs (e.g. today’s EU deadline change). Invest at your own risk.