Inferred daily trends based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Positive
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally negative
If I increase the recession probability variable to 50%, I get the same basic expectations.
Thus, I’m sitting out until the daily and weekly based expectations align. I wouldn’t be surprised if I take a position against the index before the week is out, but it’s really data dependent. Invest at your own risk.