The ranged forecasts for my model support daily returns trending negative.
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Flat
Thus, I’m still invested against the market, and I have made a nice return thus far (+1.45% since 8-15). Invest at your own risk.
The financial news is pointing towards Powell’s Jackson Hole speech being the next significant market mover. Warning, it could easily translate to a big market swing of unclear direction. Really invest at your own risk regarding short-term investments today. The upside story would be Powell signaling rate cuts faster than current market expectations. The downside story would be Powell signaling rate cuts slower than current market expectations. The extreme downside story would likely be Trump ratcheting up tensions considerably regarding firing or threatening to fire Powell. Looking at the possible stories, I entertained just sitting out, but at some point I just rest easy knowing that tomorrow doesn’t seem likely to be a day where markets will go up 5+% like the Liberation Day reversal earlier this year. My wild guess: Trump dislikes Powell’s speech and escalates the Lisa Cook mortgage fraud investigation, net effect moving markets down going into the weekend.