Month: August 2025

Based on ranged forecasts, the daily ranged forecasts suggests a positive daily trend while longer ranged forecasts suggest a negative daily trend. I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a more consistent signal. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend projections based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t in agreement, I’m sitting out waiting for a clearer signal. Invest at your own risk.

I exited my positions today in preparation for stepping away for a few days. This should not be taken as a market forecast. Invest at your own risk. Due to scarcity of time, I skipped running the models since it wouldn’t change my own trading behavior.

The daily and weekly ranged forecast versions of my model suggest negative daily trends, as do the alternate data version with an increased recession probability factor of 50%. Thus, I’m still invested against the index. Invest at your own risk.

Daily and weekly forecasts suggest negative daily trend, even when assuming a higher 50% recession probability. Thus, I’m still short the index. If current data holds tomorrow, I may exit then. Invest at your own risk.

The daily and weekly forecasts both suggest negative daily return trends. Thus, I’m short the market as of this afternoon. Invest at your own risk. The monthly and quarterly forecasts also suggest negative daily trends. Note, if I assume a 50% recession risk, the daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts still suggest negative daily trends. Invest… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-04

The daily forecast suggests a negative daily trend while the weekly forecast suggests a positive daily trend. I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clearer signal. Invest at your own risk.