Month: September 2025

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x threshold)Weekly: Negative (Marginally over threshold)Monthly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (5% of positive threshold)Annually: Flat (70% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I exited my position despite the daily and weekly forecasts still suggesting a negative trend, as the negative nature of forecasts… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-30

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>6x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x ThresholdQuarterly: Flat (~50% Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (~70% Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. Despite a loss over the last two business days (but up overall), I’m still in my position against the index.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>6x over threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x over threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2.75x threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~60% of negative threshold)Annually: Flat(~75% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. Despite the cut back on gains today, I’m still in my negative position against the market. My models more strongly suggest negative returns… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-26

Daily Return Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4 Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2 Threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~1/2 Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (~1/2 Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. I continue to hold a short-term position against the market since 9/22 for a +1.7% return.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~2/3 negative threshold)Annual: Flat (~50% negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m holding a short-term position against the index.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Flat (~2/3 of negative threshold)Annually: Flat (~50% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m still invested against the index based on these forecasts.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecastDaily: Negative (>3x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x Threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~2/3 Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (1/2 Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. I entered a position against the index today.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Flat (Under negative threshold by ~40%)Weekly: Negative (~4 times threshold)Monthly: Negative (~2.5 times threshold)Quarterly: Flat (Under negative threshold by ~25%)Annually: Flat (Under threshold by ~50%) Due to the daily forecast, I’m not short-term invested with or against the index. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a flat daily trend. Thus, I’m not invested short-term with or against the index. Invest at your own risk. The weekly and monthly forecast suggest a negative daily return trend. The quarterly and annual ranged forecasts suggest a flat dailyt return trend.

As the daily, weekly, and monthly ranged forecasts are all negative enough to suggest a negative daily return trend, I’d normally invest against the index now. I didn’t today, because I was wrapped up in work up until the time of the market close. Invest at your own risk.