S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-04

Warning: Take this with a grain of salt. I don’t forecast the jobs numbers to input into my forecast and that’s likely to be a major market mover tomorrow.

Daily: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)
Weekly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)
Monthly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)
Quarterly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)
Annually: Marginally negative

Given this forecast, I took short term positions against the market today. I’m still avoiding geared/leveraged ETFs due to the degree unexpected government policy can shift markets. Also, my model isn’t designed as a way to bet on the employment reports.

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