Author: bullbearduck.com

My daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts are all positive. My annual forecast is marginally negative. Positive/negative implies that the forecast is significant enough in magnitude to suggest a likely daily trend. Under usual circumstances, I’d be invested in the index at a leverage factor of 3. However, these aren’t usual circumstances. For these reasons,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-14

Here are the ranged forecasts:Daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts with normal data are positive. The annual forecast is now marginally positive. If I put my finger down on a recession variable marked that has a range of 0 (not recession) v. 1 (recession), a value of .5 or 1 on that regression variable changes… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-10

Ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally negative Note: A negative or positive forecast connotes a strong enough signal to suggest a probable daily trend direction. My reaction to these forecasts is to not hold a short-term S&P 500 position. Invest at your own risk.

I’ve stopped holding a position for or against the S&P 500. Underlying forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Note all the above statements are regarding whether the ranged forecast is strong enough to contribute to anticipating a short-term market trend. Longer-term, my best forecast is a mild rebound over the next quarter,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-06

I changed the leverage on my index position from a factor of 3 to 1. Underlying forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Invest at your own risk. Per usual, my statements or positive or negative is as to whether the forecast is strong enough to suggest a meaningful non-horizontal trend in daily prices,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-05

I’ve entered a position in the index with a leverage factor of 3. Underlying forecasts:Daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly ranged forecasts are positive.The annual forecast is marginally negative. My statements of positive or negative are simply statements of whether the forecast suggests a positive or negative trend in daily returns. I’m not making a statement… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-03-04

I am waiting on more conclusive forecasts for my next position other than cash. Underlying forecasts:Daily: Marginally positiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnual: Marginally negative Marginal forecasts are signals not strong enough to act on regarding expecting a daily trend direction. Invest at your own risk.

I’ve exited my position against the market today. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative/positive forecasts connote a strong enough forecast to suggest a daily trend, not bear markets, corrections, etc. Invest at your own risk.

I’m positioned against the index at a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative connotes a forecast strong enough to suggest a daily trend in direction, not a bear market, nor even a correction. Invest at your own risk.

I’m still short the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of -2. Underlying forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally negative Negative forecasts do not mean a bear market, nor a correction. Rather, it means that the forecast is under a threshold where daily results clearly trended down. Invest at your own risk.