Author: bullbearduck.com

I’m still in a position against the S&P 500 at a leverage factor of -3 since the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year forecasts are all negative.

I’m still in a position against the index with leverage of -3, as the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year forecasts are all negative.

I have changed my leverage against the S&P 500 from a factor of -1 to -3, because the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts from my modeling are all negative. If market conditions remain largely unchanged over the weekend, I’ll probably be keeping this position open on Monday based on forecasts for Monday.

Today, I opened a position against the index at a leverage factor of -1, as the 1-day and 1-week ranged forecasts are negative. The 1-month forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year forecast is still negative.

Initial post from before the Fed’s rate cut: I closed my S&P 500 position today. The 1-day forecast is marginally positive. The 1-week forecast and 1-month forecasts are marginally negative. The 1-year forecast is still negative. Update from after Fed’s rate cut: Today’s forecast is little changed, so I’m not taking a position before the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-18

I eliminated the leverage but am holding a position with the S&P 500. The 1-day ranged forecast is positive, while the 1-week and 1-month ranged forecasts are marginally positive. The 1-year ranged forecast is still negative. Odds are good that I will be active in the market tomorrow, as the Fed’s actions are likely to… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-17

I have increased my leverage to a positive factor of 2 for investing in the S&P 500. The 1-day and 1-week ranged forecasts are positive. The 1-month ranged forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year ranged forecast is still negative. Regarding the FOMC meetings in two days, I tried modeling modest parallel interest rate shifts up… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-16

I opened a position in the S&P 500 without leverage as the 1-day ranged forecast is positive, and the 1-week forecast is marginally positive. I didn’t apply leverage since the 1-month ranged forecast is marginally negative and the 1-year ranged forecast is negative.

I’m still without a position with or against the index based on my model forecasts. The 1-day ranged forecast is only marginally negative, while the 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts are negative at more meaningful magnitudes.

I’m not invested with or against the S&P 500 index based on my model’s forecast as the 1-day forecast is only marginally negative. The 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts are all negative at larger magnitudes.