Author: bullbearduck.com

I’m still holding a position long the index with a leverage factor or 1. If markets are uneventful, I may exit the position tomorrow. The 1-day forecast and the 1-week forecast are positive. The 1-month and the 1-year forecast are negative.

I continue to hold a long position in the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of 2. However, I may reposition that to a leverage factor of 1 tomorrow due to a weakening 1-mo forecast. The 1-day forecast is positive. The 1-week forecast is positive. The 1-month forecast is marginally positive. The 1-yr forecast is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-08-15

My investment shifted yesterday to with the S&P 500 using a leverage factor of 2. The 1-day model forecast is positive. The 1-week model forecast is positive. The 1-month model forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year model forecast is still very negative.

The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (unemployment increasing more than .5 percent based on a moving average) admittedly caused quite a stir in recent weeks. Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org), which leads me to saying a bit about my own modeling efforts with unemployment and panic about recession… Continue reading Unemployment as a model variable

The model strategy calls for investing with the S&P 500 at a leverage factor of 2. I’m actually doing a factor of 1 for a couple reasons: (a) the daily and monthly forecasts aren’t very strong and (b) I’m not confident in my availability to trade tomorrow if I it proves time to unwind this… Continue reading Forecast 2024-08-12

My forecasting posting stalled as I, the lone model manager, has been dealing with health concerns that have been and will continue to be a priority over updating this site. I’m hopeful to resume daily updates this month, but no promises.

I took a break on modeling and trading while on vacation, but I’m back now. The 1-day forecast is negligibly positive. The 1-wk forecast is negligibly negative. The 1-mo and 1-yr forecasts are negative. I’m sitting out waiting for the 1-day and 1-wk forecasts to offer a stronger signal.

The 1-day, 1-wk, 1-mo, and 1-yr ranged forecasts are all negative. Thus, I’m still invested against the index at a leverage factor of -3. Since the position was opened it has lost -1.8%. Obviously, invest at your own risk. I make no guarantees.

The 1-day, 1-wk, 1-mo, and 1-yr forecasts are all negatived according to my modeling. Thus, I continue to hold a position against the S&P 500, leveraged at a factor of -3. The position is current down -1.87% since being opened. Definitely, invest at your own risk.

1-day, 1-week, 1-mo, and 1-yr ranged forecasts are all negative. I continued to hold a position against the S&P 500 with a leverage factor of -3. It hasn’t been fruitful to date. Thus far, I’ve lost almost exactly 3% of my starting position. Definitely, invest at your own risk.