Author: bullbearduck.com

The ranged forecasts do not consistently suggest the same daily return trend.Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.

The ranged forecast models aren’t sending a clear daily return trend.Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Negative, but close to thresholdAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m on the sidelines regarding short-term position with or against the market. Invest at your own risk. The monthly forecast is very much the most negative of the bunch.

The daily forecast no longer suggests a negative daily trend return, while longer ranged forecasts still do. Thus, I exited my position against the market without opening a new position. Invest at your own risk.

The ranged forecasts from my models suggest negative daily return trends. I’m invested against the index. The daily ranged forecast may weaken enough by tomorrow to close the position out. Invest at your own risk.

Despite the Jackson Hole speech moving markets up this morning, my models still suggest negative daily return trends based on ranged forecasts. I’m still invested against the index, but thankfully not significantly leveraged, given this morning. Invest at your own risk. On the horizon: Trump is actively threatening to fire a Lisa Cook, a Fed… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-22

The ranged forecasts for my model support daily returns trending negative.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m still invested against the market, and I have made a nice return thus far (+1.45% since 8-15). Invest at your own risk. The financial news is pointing towards Powell’s Jackson Hole speech being the next significant market… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-21

Ranged forecasts suggest negative trends for daily market results.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnual: Flat Thus, I’m still invested against the market. Unless data changes, a similar forecast will likely hold tomorrow. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trends based on ranged forecasts suggest negative short term outlook.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat If one assumes a 50% recession risk rather than using the models’ standard Sahm indicator, then the Quarterly forecast is also flat. I’m currently invested against the market. Invest at your own risk.

My ranged model forecasts from daily to quarterly all suggested negative daily return trends for the moment. Assuming a 50% inflation probability, results in the same trend forecasts. Thus, I’ve opened a position against the market for now. Note, long-term shorting the market is rarely a good idea. Invest at your own risk. For what… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-15

Based on ranged forecasts, the daily ranged forecasts suggests a positive daily trend while longer ranged forecasts suggest a negative daily trend. I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a more consistent signal. Invest at your own risk.