Author: bullbearduck.com

Today: Daily, weekly, and monthly Forecasts are up. Annual forecast is still pretty bearish, but has weakened considerably in recent days.Tomorrow: Daily, weekly forecast is up, but the monthly forecast has shifted back to neutral.Positioning: I closed out of my unleveraged long position +5.68% in favor of shifting to long with a leverage of x2.As… Continue reading Short-term Forecast 2023-11-03

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. Monthly forecast is neutral, but close to positive. Annual forecast is still very negative.Tomorrow: More of the same, but the monthly forecast backs away from being positive by a bit.I’m still holding an S&P 500 long position without leverage. Current position result is +4.87%.Per usual, invest at your… Continue reading Short-Term Forecast 2023-11-02

Outperforming the market by roughly 11% ain’t shabby. Model performance: v S&P 500:

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. The monthly forecast is neutral. The annual forecast is still very negative.Tomorrow: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. The monthly forecast is neutral.I’m holding my long position without leverage. Current position performance is +2.2%. As always, invest at your own risk.

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive with the monthly forecast being on the low end of neutral. Holding long the S&P500 without leverage.Tomorrow: Daily and weekly forecasts unchanged, but the monthly forecast is mildly negative. In which case, I would hold long, but definitely not entertain a leveraged position.Current position is up 1.57% since… Continue reading Short-term Forecast

I created a breakdown of what is factoring into the current particularly bearish forecast for the annual model. I categorize the many model variables as falling into one of six categories: dividend yield, stock v bond, credit premiums, inflation, term (aka time) premiums, and price trends. Pretty much all the categories are weighing the model… Continue reading Why so down?

Thanks to a conversation with a friend over the weekend. I’ve generated a monthly forecast that influences the usage of leverage in my trading going forward. For example, if the daily and weekly forecast are negative and the annual forecast is also negative, but the monthly forecast is actually positive; arguably, I shouldn’t be investing… Continue reading Investing strategy modification

Today: Daily and weekly models are positive. New monthly model is neutral. Annual model is bearish. Thus, long S&P 500 without leverage. Tomorrow: Daily and weekly modelas are positive. Monthly model is neutral. Annual model is bearish. Not anticipating trading changes tomorrow.Open position performance +.6%As always invest at your own risk.

Today: Positive forecasts with the weekly forecast considerably stronger than the daily forecast. Monday: More positive forecast than today.I opened a position to go long S&P 500, but without leverage, as I’m still forecasting a bearish result for 12 months out. Technically, I should have opened this position yesterday and lost a modest amount of… Continue reading Short-term forecast 2023-10-27

While I do believe it’s possible to beat the market long-term, most people who try fail. To use the language of my wife’s family, most of us aren’t “special bunnies” when it comes to unearthing great, new trading schemes. If you’re going to beat the market consistently (aka Warren Buffet and whomever else you want… Continue reading Active Trading Is Dangerous