Category: Blog

I’m taking a break from daily forecast updates due to a head concussion. I hope to resume in a week or two. As a parting farewell, I’m out of the market today as the weekly forecast is for an expected gain/loss of ~0. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Positive (>2x threshold)Weekly: Flat (~0)Monthly: Flat (Just under positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~20% negative threshold)Annually: Flat (~80% negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m waiting for a clearer signal from my forecasts before reentering the market.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Positive (<2x Threshold)Weekly: Flat (effectively 0)Monthly: Positive (Marginally over threshold)Quarterly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Annually: Flat (2/3 of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signals.

Daily return trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Flat (30% of negative threshold)Weekly: Flat (50% of negative threshold)Monthly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (<10% of negative threshold)Annually: Flat (75% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m out. My forecasts aren’t latching on the market trending up nor down at the moment. FWIW,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-10-01

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x threshold)Weekly: Negative (Marginally over threshold)Monthly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (5% of positive threshold)Annually: Flat (70% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I exited my position despite the daily and weekly forecasts still suggesting a negative trend, as the negative nature of forecasts… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-30

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>6x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x ThresholdQuarterly: Flat (~50% Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (~70% Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. Despite a loss over the last two business days (but up overall), I’m still in my position against the index.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>6x over threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x over threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2.75x threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~60% of negative threshold)Annually: Flat(~75% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. Despite the cut back on gains today, I’m still in my negative position against the market. My models more strongly suggest negative returns… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-26

Daily Return Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4 Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2 Threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~1/2 Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (~1/2 Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. I continue to hold a short-term position against the market since 9/22 for a +1.7% return.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~2/3 negative threshold)Annual: Flat (~50% negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m holding a short-term position against the index.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Flat (~2/3 of negative threshold)Annually: Flat (~50% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m still invested against the index based on these forecasts.