Category: Blog

Inferred daily trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negativeIf I increase the recession probability variable to 50%, I get the same basic expectations. Thus, I’m sitting out until the daily and weekly based expectations align. I wouldn’t be surprised if I take a position against the index before the week is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-10

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Marginally positiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative.Note: Increasing the recession risk to 50% produces the same trend expectations. Because of the daily forecast not being aligned with the weekly forecast, I’m sitting on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative I’m still sitting on the sidelines regarding market timing the index since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t sending a consistent signal. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts.Daily: PositiveWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive Trends do not offer clear enough signals to take an index perspective. Forcing the recession risk indicator to 50% further supports that, but the results are admittedly more negative. Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts when recession risk is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-25

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive This forecast would usually lead me to hold my investment in an S&P index fund. However, I’m selling out based on alternate results from assuming a recession risk of 50%. I’m skeptical that the unemployment rate via the Sahm rule is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-04

Daily trend expectations given ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positiveAssuming a higher recession risk of 50%, the monthly forecast trend shifts to negative. I’m still invested in a basis S&P index fund. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positiveIf I force the recession risk data up to 50%, these trends are reinforced with that alternate data. Thus, I’m still invested in an S&P 500 index fund. So far, on this position, so good. Invest at your own risk. Personally, I’m… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-02

Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positiveAssuming an increased recession risk of 50% doesn’t alter the expected trends. Thus, I’m purchasing an S&P 500 index fund. The forecast isn’t strong enough to justify a leveraged bet according to my strategy. Even if it was, I wouldn’t do it since… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-30

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: Marginally negativeAnnually: Marginally positiveAssuming a higher 50% recession probability results in the daily forecast only being marginally positive and the weekly forecast being negative. Thus, I exited my position against the index given the short-term forecasts positivity, but I didn’t open a position trying… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-28

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negativeAssuming a higher recession probability of .50 would leave the expected trends the same except for the monthly expectation worsening to negative. Thus, I’m still invested against the index. I’m avoiding excessive leverage due to the political instability surrounding tarrifs (e.g. today’s… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-27