Category: Blog

Today: All forecasts are negative. Friday: All forecasts are negative with the short-term forecast being increasingly negative. I opened a short S&P 500 position, but I’m not trying to gear up to a factor of two or three, since I’m a bit wary of betting against historical Thanksgiving weekend market trends.

Today: Neutral daily and weekly forecasts, negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Negative forecasts across the board. Positioning: In cash. If tomorrow’s forecast holds, I’ll short, but not with leverage. I trust the model less with the days around Thanksgiving. I don’t have variables regarding Thanksgiving, and the raw data suggests a strongly positive seasonal… Continue reading Forecast 2023-11-21

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are neutral. Monthly and annual forecasts are negative. Tomorrow: All forecasts are negative. I’m currently in cash. Regarding tomorrow, I don’t have a special indicator for Thanksgiving week in my modeling. There is no denying that history suggests a very typical holiday boost for the tail end of this week.… Continue reading Forecast 2023-11-20

Today: Neutral daily forecast, positive weekly forecast, negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Neutral daily and weekly forecasts, negative monthly and annual forecasts. Sitting in cash. (Per every day, invest at your own risk. I guarantee nothing.)

Today: Neutral daily forecast. Positive weekly forecast. Negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Neutral daily and weekly forecasts. Negative monthly and annual forecasts. My alignment is cash. Invest at your own risk.

Today: Neutral daily forecast. Positive weekly forecast. Negative monthly and annual forecast.Tomorrow: Ditto.I closed my short position down -7.11% since opening. Clearly, invest at your own risk.

Today: All forecasts are negative.Tomorrow: All forecasts are negative.My open short position with leverage is at -6.21% (almost entirely thanks to today). This is definitely part of why there is the daily disclaimer to mimic at your own risk. The short signal from the forecast is now louder. However, please do not take this as… Continue reading Short-term Forecast 2023-11-14

Today: All forecasts are negative, but the weekly forecast is on the cusp of neutral. Tomorrow: Ditto I was tempted to exit, rather than flirt with a neutral forecast; but since the forecast becomes more strongly tomorrow, I opted not to add extra transactions. (Current position: +.67%) As always, invest at your own risk. I… Continue reading Short-term Forecast 2023-11-13

Today: All forecasts are negative.Monday: All forecasts but weekly are negative. The weekly forecast is neutral.Thus, I entered a short position with leverage today.Invest at your own risk.

Today: Daily forecast is neutral. Weekly forecast is positive. Monthly forecast is negative.Tomorrow: All forecasts are negative.I exited my long position for a position gain of +.03%. I anticipate shorting the market with leverage tomorrow if all forecasts continue to point the same direction.Invest at your own risk.