Category: Blog

Today: Positive daily and weekly forecasts. Negative monthly and annual forecasts. Tomorrow: Negative daily forecast and positive weekly forecast. Negative monthly and annual forecasts. Current long position is at +.75% since opening. I anticipate exiting the market tomorrow. Invest at your own risk.

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. Monthly forecast is negative. Annual forecast is negative.Tomorrow: Ditto.My long position without leverage opened yesterday is at +.62%.

Today: Positive daily and weekly forecasts. Neutral monthly forecast. Negative annual forecast.Closed long with leverage -.01% return from position.

For those who don’t live and die by the BLS calendar, today was the monthly Friday for the jobs report. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, which is admittedly historically low, but its direction is a very strong indicator of when a recession is underway (frequently before it has been declared). I’m definitely not saying that… Continue reading Recession finally coming?

Today: Daily, weekly, and monthly Forecasts are up. Annual forecast is still pretty bearish, but has weakened considerably in recent days.Tomorrow: Daily, weekly forecast is up, but the monthly forecast has shifted back to neutral.Positioning: I closed out of my unleveraged long position +5.68% in favor of shifting to long with a leverage of x2.As… Continue reading Short-term Forecast 2023-11-03

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. Monthly forecast is neutral, but close to positive. Annual forecast is still very negative.Tomorrow: More of the same, but the monthly forecast backs away from being positive by a bit.I’m still holding an S&P 500 long position without leverage. Current position result is +4.87%.Per usual, invest at your… Continue reading Short-Term Forecast 2023-11-02

Outperforming the market by roughly 11% ain’t shabby. Model performance: v S&P 500:

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. The monthly forecast is neutral. The annual forecast is still very negative.Tomorrow: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive. The monthly forecast is neutral.I’m holding my long position without leverage. Current position performance is +2.2%. As always, invest at your own risk.

Today: Daily and weekly forecasts are positive with the monthly forecast being on the low end of neutral. Holding long the S&P500 without leverage.Tomorrow: Daily and weekly forecasts unchanged, but the monthly forecast is mildly negative. In which case, I would hold long, but definitely not entertain a leveraged position.Current position is up 1.57% since… Continue reading Short-term Forecast

I created a breakdown of what is factoring into the current particularly bearish forecast for the annual model. I categorize the many model variables as falling into one of six categories: dividend yield, stock v bond, credit premiums, inflation, term (aka time) premiums, and price trends. Pretty much all the categories are weighing the model… Continue reading Why so down?