Category: Blog

Daily return trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Counterintuitively, assuming an increased 50% recession risk paints a rosier picture with the weekly ranged forecast suggesting a positive return trend. I’m on the sidelines based on the weekly forecast not better complimenting the daily forecast. Invest at your own risk.

The daily ranged forecast suggests positive daily trends, disagreeing with longer ranged forecasts that suggest negative daily trends. I’m sitting out waiting for clearer signals. Invest at your own risk.

The daily model suggests a positive trend, disagreeing with all the other longer ranged models. I exited my position due to lack of consistency in suggested daily trends between daily and weekly ranged forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

My ranged forecasts (daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly) all still suggest that daily trends will be negative in the future. This modeling holds if I assume a higher 50% recession risk. Thus, I’m still invested against the market. Invest at your own risk. If data is little changed between today and tomorrow, I may end… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-07-10

Ranged forecasts (daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly) suggest negative daily trends. This is also the case when assuming a higher recession probability of 50%. Thus, I’m short the market using an inverse ETF. I’m not leveraging/gearing my position due to the unpredictability of tariff policy. Invest at your own risk.

Sorry, I didn’t keep up with this while on vacation last week. All ranged forecasts except the annual forecast suggest a negative trend, whether I force the recession probability variable up to 50% or not. Thus, I effectively shorted the index with an inverse ETF. I am steering clear of leverage given the volatility produced… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-07-08

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Under normal circumstances this would result in me investing in an index fund. However, forcing the recession risk to 50%, suggests staying out. Higher recession risk based trends:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecastsDaily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat However, if I assume an increased recession risk of 50%,Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m still sitting out, but a slight improvement in forecasts would cause me to invest in an index fund. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Under typical circumstances, I’d invest in the S&P 500 index given this forecast. However, a forecast with assumptions of increased 50% recession risk suggests a different story. Weekly: NegativeMonthly: Negative Due to the weekly forecast being negative, I’m staying cautious and staying uninvested.… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-23

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecastsDaily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m sidelined for due to the weekly forecast not aligning better with the daily forecast. When the forecasts are forced to an increased recession risk of 50%, the forecasts are more negative than those stated above. Invest at your own risk.