Category: Blog

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positiveNote: These are also the expectations if I force the recession probability variable to 50% (overriding my unemployment based variable). Thus, I’m still in a position against the index. I’m not using leverage due to the political volatility, arguably being out of scoped… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-22

Ranged forecast’s suggestion of daily trends:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I entered a position against the market. As I’ve said on multiple posts in the past month, I’m steering clear of greater leverage due to the volatility of the political climate. FWIW, Personal and work matters kept me from providing forecasts the last… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-17

Ranged-forecast suggestions of daily return trendsDaily: Negative (w/ unemployment data as recession indicator; Positive (w/ recession probability forced to 50%)Weekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I exited my position against the market today and took no new position. Invest at your own risk.

Ranged-forecasts suggestion of daily trend:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive This forecast holds true for both my unemployment based recession variable and a forced value on the recession probability indicator of .4 (on a 0 to 1) scale. Thus, I’m short the market. I’m intentionally using a leverage factor of just -1 since the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-11

Ranged-forecasts (true for both current data and recession variable forced to .4)Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positivePositive or negative is a statement of a large enough magnitude trend to suggest a daily trend direction. I’m holding in a position against the S&P at a leverage factor of just -1 that I entered after the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-10

Ranged Forecasts:The daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts are positive, while the annual forecast is marginally positive. However, overriding the recession variable to .5 (on a scale of 0 to 1), makes the daily forecast negative. Positive or negative is an indicator of expected daily trend based on the magnitude of the forecast. Under normal… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-08

Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m on the sidelines due to the trend from daily forecasts not suggesting the same daily return trend as longer ranged forecasts. The monthly and quarterly forecasts are growing increasingly significant, but the daily forecast suggests looking for an upswing in the next 24 hours has a… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-07

Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally Positive Positive or negative is an indication of a forecast suggesting a direction for daily return trends. Given that the Daily and Weekly expectations are currently in opposite directions, I’m on the sidelines waiting for what my models would suggest to be a clearer day directionally. Invest at… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-04

Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Negative or positive is a statement of if the forecast is strong enough to suggests a daily trend. Based on the model, I’m still on the sidelines, as the Daily rate isn’t suggesting the same trend as the weekly rate. Invest at your own risk.

Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positivePositive or negative is an indicator of a strong enough forecast to suggest a trend in daily returns. I’m out of the market since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t aligned. Invest at your own risk. Interestingly, my forecasting for tomorrow suggests that the daily forecast will shift… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-02