Still recommending cash for the 13th due to models not aligning. However, the models align on Monday, just not over the threshold necessary for me to recommend stepping into the market. As always invest at your own risk.
Behind the website
Of course, I don’t recommend following the advice of somebody because they can provide a couple of amazing graphs and claim that there is data supporting it. Here are a few details about me. I am a CFA charterholder. I have a master’s degree in economics from George Mason University with coursework that included applied… Continue reading Behind the website
Short-term forecast 2023-10-12, belated
Still recommending cash due to daily and weekly forecasts not aligning. Invest at your own risk.
Short-term Forecast 2023-10-11
Recommendation: Today: Cash, Tomorrow: Cash. Still contrary daily and weekly forecasts. As always, just opinions based on models, invest at your own risk.
Short-term Forecast 2023-10-10
Today: Cash. Tomorrow: Cash. Daily and weekly expectations are moving opposite directions. The view posted here is an opinion derived from our proprietary econometric models. Invest at your own risk.
Investing Strategy
The investing strategy hinges on three related models an annual return model for deciding whether or not to leverage the strategy and daily and weekly models to decide whether to be long the S&P500 (bull), short the S&P500 (bear), or to sit out (duck). Regarding the annual model, I use a threshold of +/- .08… Continue reading Investing Strategy
Short-Term Focus 2023-10-09
Today: Cash. Tomorrow: Cash. Daily and weekly expectations are moving opposite directions.
Annual Forecast 2023-10-09
Bear. This forecast is worse than any of the backtesting for a variety of reasons such as the inverted yield curve, high inflation, high bond yields relative to dividend yields, etc. The current red forecast (only visible upon opening full post) is worse than what the model projected during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Why Bull, Bear, Duck?
Welcome to my website for sharing my insights on whether the S&P 500 is going to rise (bull), contract (bear), or just not very clear (duck). Yes, bad pun, but if I can introduce a new animal to the investing lexicon, wouldn’t it be awesome? There have been times where friends and family have wanted… Continue reading Why Bull, Bear, Duck?