Daily: Marginally negative (~70% of investment threshold
Weekly: Negative (Almost 4x investment threshold)
Monthly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)
Quarterly: Marginally negative (~80% of investment threshold)
Annually: Marginally negative
I’m still on the sidelines. The significant losses and rising rates this morning weakened the daily forecast for today. I’m waiting for a stronger daily forecast to go along with the weekly forecast. However, it seems very likely that I’ll take a short-term position against the S&P 500 later this week. Invest at your own risk!
Here’s the risk factor that has the market spooked right now. Higher inflation due to oil -> higher interest rates -> worse returns on growth stocks (stocks that pay little to nothing in dividends that are just expecting price growth). My modeling which isn’t guaranteed to be correct suggests that this is more of a potentially bad month rather than an indicator that the market is about to tank. The monthly forecast is more severe than the quarterly or annual forecast.
Addendum: By day end, the daily forecast crossed the investment threshold (barely). However, tomorrow’s forecast is back below the threshold currently, so I’m not rushing to create a bunch of transaction churn/cost.