Category: Blog

My forecast has me investing against the index. I don’t have time to go into details. Modeling suggests exiting tomorrow, but we’ll see what the data brings.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts when 50% recession expectation:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive I’ve entered a position against the market. I’m not leveraged since (a) Monthly trends don’t support the shorter ranged forecast trends and (b) I’ve… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-07

Daily trends based on ranged forecasts on standard dataDaily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Daily trends based on ranged forecasts with increased recession risk variable:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Marginally positiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m waiting for a clearer forecast signal before investing for or against the index in the short term. Invest at your… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-06

Daily Trend Expectations based on standard data’s Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Daily Trend Expectations based on recession in data for ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m not invested in the market give daily and weekly forecasts not suggesting the same trends. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Trends based on ranged forecasts (regular data):Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: PositiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positiveDaily trends based on ranged forecasts (increased likelihood of recession):Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive Both forecast variants have led to me not taking a position with or against the index today, not a clear enough short-range forecast. Invest at your… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-05-02

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts from standard data:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positiveNote: The daily and weekly conclusion are based on razor thin margins. Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts with thumb down on recession indicator:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive The forecasts aren’t clear enough for me to… Continue reading S&P Forecast 2025-05-01

Daily trend expectations from ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m waiting for a clearer signal before I reinvest. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Return Trends based on Ranged Forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I exited my position against the index today to instead sit in cash. While the standard forecasts are still pessimistic, the magnitudes have shrunk, and forcing the recession variable based on unemployment from <.05 to .5 (think 50% chance of in recession)… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-04-28

Anticipated daily trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m in a position against the index but without any additional leverage, given the political uncertainty of the moment. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: PositiveAnnually: Marginally positive I’m still short the index, but without the leverage that my strategy calls for. Political volatility is just too high to entertain leverage. Invest at your own risk. I’m not always right, as evidenced by today.