Category: Blog

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m on the sidelines given the different expectations based on daily and weekly forecasts. Looking alternatively at forecasts that assume a 50% recession risk, the trend expectations are considerably more negative, but I’m using that negative scenario forecast as a sanity check of… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-18

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Since the Daily and Weekly trends aren’t complimentary, I’m sidelined on timing investments in the index. Invest at your own risk. Extra info:Trends based on forecast with 50% recession riskDaily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat

Daily trend expectations from ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m not invested in a timing position since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t aligned. Forcing the data up to a 50% recession risk reinforces this stance with the daily forecast suggesting a positive trend and the weekly forecast suggesting a negative trend. Invest… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-16

Daily Trend Expectations from Ranged Forecasts intaking standard dataDaily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat With altered data (forcing recession probability variable to 50%)Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Based on these forecasts, I am sitting out of the market regarding timing based investments. I’m waiting for a time that the Daily and Weekly forecasts (both… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-13

Daily return trend expectation based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally positiveQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive I’m sidelined regarding time based investment since the weekly forecast isn’t stronger. Invest at your own risk. If the weekly forecast based trend was positive, I would have looked at the same forecasts with a forced increased recession risk… Continue reading S&P Forecast 2025-06-12

Daily trend expectation based on ranged forecast:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative My timing investments are sidelined since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t suggesting the same direction. Invest at your own risk.

Inferred daily trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negativeIf I increase the recession probability variable to 50%, I get the same basic expectations. Thus, I’m sitting out until the daily and weekly based expectations align. I wouldn’t be surprised if I take a position against the index before the week is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-10

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Marginally positiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative.Note: Increasing the recession risk to 50% produces the same trend expectations. Because of the daily forecast not being aligned with the weekly forecast, I’m sitting on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative I’m still sitting on the sidelines regarding market timing the index since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t sending a consistent signal. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts.Daily: PositiveWeekly: Marginally positiveMonthly: Marginally negativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally positive Trends do not offer clear enough signals to take an index perspective. Forcing the recession risk indicator to 50% further supports that, but the results are admittedly more negative. Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts when recession risk is… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-25