Ranged-forecasts suggestion of daily trend:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Positive
Annually: Marginally positive
This forecast holds true for both my unemployment based recession variable and a forced value on the recession probability indicator of .4 (on a 0 to 1) scale.
Thus, I’m short the market. I’m intentionally using a leverage factor of just -1 since the Trump administration announcement and resulting market reactions are quite volatile and not necessarily consistent with my market data driven model predictions.
Invest at your own risk.