Daily Return Trends based on Ranged Forecasts:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Positive
Annually: Marginally positive
I exited my position against the index today to instead sit in cash. While the standard forecasts are still pessimistic, the magnitudes have shrunk, and forcing the recession variable based on unemployment from <.05 to .5 (think 50% chance of in recession) weakens the forecast further, flipping the daily forecast to positive. Also, my modeling suggests that tomorrow’s forecast will be weaker/less consistent about direction than today’s forecast.
Invest at your own risk.