Daily trends based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Negative
Weekly: Negative
Monthly: Negative
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Marginally negative
If I alter the data to 50% recession probability, I get similar results, just a modest change in the monthly forecast to marginally negative.
Thus, I’m opening a position against the index. I’m not seeking to increase leverage to a factor of 2 or 3 times the index given hard to predict political news.
Invest at your own risk.