S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-18

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:
Daily: Positive
Weekly: Flat
Monthly: Flat
Quarterly: Negative
Annually: Flat

I’m on the sidelines given the different expectations based on daily and weekly forecasts. Looking alternatively at forecasts that assume a 50% recession risk, the trend expectations are considerably more negative, but I’m using that negative scenario forecast as a sanity check of the main forecast, not an override of the standard forecast. Invest at your own risk.

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