Daily: Negative (>4x investment threshold)
Weekly: Negative (>5x threshold)
Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)
Quarterly: Marginally negative (~50% of threshold)
Annually: Marginally negative
I’m still invested against the index short term. Thus far, I’m up 1.5%. My model suggests that negative conditions are strengthening regarding daily and weekly forecasts while the monthly forecast is also steadily negative. Invest at your own risk!
The month ahead isn’t looking bright at the moment for this index, though things can change. Bond interest rates seem to be taking charge, and I’m skeptical how much Trump or Bessent can do about it, other than starting to show fiscal prudence or finding a magical ending in Iran, neither of which seem likely to come to pass. The largest market cap stocks in the index are very susceptible to higher interest rates in theory.