Author: bullbearduck.com

My shortest forecasts (daily, weekly, and monthly) suggest negative daily return trends. The quarterly forecast suggests a positive daily return trend. The annual forecast suggests a flat daily return trend. Thus, I’m still invested against the index, as shorter ranged forecasts have more predictive power for daily trends. Go figure, a daily forecast is more… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-08

The daily trend expectations are negative based on my ranged forecasts. The only exception was my annual forecast suggesting a flat trend. I would have taken a position against the market except I didn’t get around to updating the models until after the market closed today. Invest at your own risk.

Sorry for not posting this timely. It was a busy day at work. The daily and weekly forecasts do not suggest the same daily return trend. Thus, I’m out of the market. Invest at your own risk. Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: FlatAnnually: Flat The monthly forecast has the highest z-stat currently.

The ranged forecasts do not consistently suggest the same daily return trend.Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.

The ranged forecast models aren’t sending a clear daily return trend.Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Negative, but close to thresholdAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m on the sidelines regarding short-term position with or against the market. Invest at your own risk. The monthly forecast is very much the most negative of the bunch.

The daily forecast no longer suggests a negative daily trend return, while longer ranged forecasts still do. Thus, I exited my position against the market without opening a new position. Invest at your own risk.

The ranged forecasts from my models suggest negative daily return trends. I’m invested against the index. The daily ranged forecast may weaken enough by tomorrow to close the position out. Invest at your own risk.

Despite the Jackson Hole speech moving markets up this morning, my models still suggest negative daily return trends based on ranged forecasts. I’m still invested against the index, but thankfully not significantly leveraged, given this morning. Invest at your own risk. On the horizon: Trump is actively threatening to fire a Lisa Cook, a Fed… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-22

The ranged forecasts for my model support daily returns trending negative.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m still invested against the market, and I have made a nice return thus far (+1.45% since 8-15). Invest at your own risk. The financial news is pointing towards Powell’s Jackson Hole speech being the next significant market… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-21

Ranged forecasts suggest negative trends for daily market results.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnual: Flat Thus, I’m still invested against the market. Unless data changes, a similar forecast will likely hold tomorrow. Invest at your own risk.