Author: bullbearduck.com

The daily and weekly ranged forecast versions of my model suggest negative daily trends, as do the alternate data version with an increased recession probability factor of 50%. Thus, I’m still invested against the index. Invest at your own risk.

Daily and weekly forecasts suggest negative daily trend, even when assuming a higher 50% recession probability. Thus, I’m still short the index. If current data holds tomorrow, I may exit then. Invest at your own risk.

The daily and weekly forecasts both suggest negative daily return trends. Thus, I’m short the market as of this afternoon. Invest at your own risk. The monthly and quarterly forecasts also suggest negative daily trends. Note, if I assume a 50% recession risk, the daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts still suggest negative daily trends. Invest… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-04

The daily forecast suggests a negative daily trend while the weekly forecast suggests a positive daily trend. I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clearer signal. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a positive daily trend, while longer ranged forecasts, including weekly do not. Thus, I’m on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.

The daily model suggests a positive trend while longer term models suggest a negative trend. I’m sitting out waiting for a more consistent set of forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a positive daily trend unlike longer ranged forecasts. Thus, I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clearer signal to invest. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a positive trend, unlike the longer ranged forecasts. I’m sitting out waiting for a clearer investing signal from my forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

Daily return trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Counterintuitively, assuming an increased 50% recession risk paints a rosier picture with the weekly ranged forecast suggesting a positive return trend. I’m on the sidelines based on the weekly forecast not better complimenting the daily forecast. Invest at your own risk.

The daily ranged forecast suggests positive daily trends, disagreeing with longer ranged forecasts that suggest negative daily trends. I’m sitting out waiting for clearer signals. Invest at your own risk.